Analisis dan Peramalan Suhu Rata-rata Bulanan Kota Aceh Utara Menggunakan Metode Holt–Winters Additive
Abstract
ABSTRACT
Temperature variation is an important indicator in climate studies and environmental analysis. This research aims to analyze and forecast the monthly average temperature of Banda Aceh for the period 2020–2024 using the Holt–Winters Additive method. Daily temperature data were transformed into monthly averages and analyzed using time series decomposition to identify trend and seasonal components. The results show that the data exhibit a clear annual seasonal pattern and a slightly increasing long-term trend. Based on these characteristics, the Holt–Winters Additive model was applied to forecast temperature for the next three years (2025–2027). The forecasting results indicate that monthly average temperatures are expected to remain relatively stable, ranging between approximately 26.2°C and 28.8°C, while maintaining consistent seasonal patterns. These findings suggest that the Holt–Winters Additive method is suitable for medium-term forecasting of monthly temperature data.
ABSTRAK
Perubahan suhu udara merupakan indikator penting dalam kajian iklim dan lingkungan. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis dan meramalkan suhu rata-rata bulanan Kota Aceh periode 2020–2024 menggunakan metode Holt–Winters Additive. Data suhu harian diolah menjadi suhu rata-rata bulanan dan dianalisis menggunakan pendekatan deret waktu melalui dekomposisi untuk mengidentifikasi komponen tren dan musiman. Hasil analisis menunjukkan bahwa data memiliki pola musiman tahunan yang jelas serta tren jangka panjang yang cenderung meningkat. Berdasarkan karakteristik tersebut, metode Holt–Winters Additive digunakan untuk melakukan peramalan suhu tiga tahun ke depan (2025–2027). Hasil peramalan menunjukkan bahwa suhu rata-rata bulanan diperkirakan relatif stabil pada kisaran 26,2°C hingga 28,8°C dengan pola musiman yang konsisten. Dengan demikian, metode Holt–Winters Additive dinilai sesuai untuk peramalan suhu bulanan dalam jangka menengah.
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.31284/j.kernel.2026.v7i1.8528
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